Hello Friends,
And happy Friday!
Recently, a smart Twitter guy whom I follow shared a similar version of this chart:
Since this is very much a investment network, someone quickly asked the following question - I want to share with you my answer in more details.
In a nutshell, I strongly believe that ageing demographics will create a new/increased demand for more and more realistic entertainment products and services (movies, video games, social media).
This ever-increasing realism will be powered by innovations such as virtual reality (VR), augmented reality (AR), and Brain-Computer Interfaces (BCIs).
Movies, video games, social media are often considered evil because they disconnect us from real life, annihilate our focus and attention span, and generally rarely contribute to a higher purpose.
This essay Kinky Labor Supply and the Attention Tax 13min - way too dense and smart to be summarised - also shares some fascinating second-order consequences on our society.
But products can often be good and bad depending on how they are used. Without going into the “Gun don’t kill people - people kill people” religion, examples are plenty: civil vs. military nuclear (and even military nuclear can see as a boon), drugs, financial derivatives, etc.
Reciprocally, while modern agriculture is successfully feeding billions of us and is always presented as a historical triumph for mankind in school books, Jared Diamond describes it as The Worst Mistake in the History of the Human Race 13min. For good reasons.
Perceptions change as well.
Some ancient Greek thinkers were even thinking that writing was a plague that would prevent the younger generation to use their memory and brain properly.
What about online dating? People initially had to hide how they met online, as if it would make them freaks. Let’s look at the statistics 20 years down the line:
My point is that many/most people will spend more and more time alone as they grow old. I think we have all seen the disastrous impact covid added to this already bleak reality.
Lifelike products are good products for this population segment, even if addictive.
Of course, if you have grandkids, spending your days on Facebook instead might not be the most fulfilling option.
But if you can’t move or travel, why can’t you use AR to play with those same grandkids?
If you can’t see, why can’t you navigate through the Internet and through life via your neural implant?
If - God forbid - you don’t have any human friends or relatives, why could not you chat your days away with a friendly AI in the VR of your choice?
Friends, and later HIMYM, were so successful as TV series because they so brilliantly emulated the warm emotions of a group of inseparable friends, and made us empathise those emotions which we have evolved to crave for millions of years.
So, if you have friends out there on whom you are bailing out to binge-watch VR-Netflix… probably not the smartest life move. But if you no longer have friends, why not? And why not get the most real-life experience technology can enable? The benefits trump the addiction.
Now in terms of trading this idea, I still think it is a long shot for this specific theses. But younger generations show the same demand.
And if I can’t see my grandma play on Roblox any time soon, I sure think she could make good use of a super user-friendly AR, whether Facebook- or Snapchat-powered.
What do you think?
Please don’t forget to share if you think this type of readings can interest others:
Thanks for reading, and have a youthful weekend,
V