Macromegas #39 - 3 Overlooked Consequences of Climate Change that will happen in Our Lifetime

3 Overlooked Consequences of Climate Change that will happen in Our Lifetime

Hello Friends,

And happy Friday!

In the past 10 years, the financial impact of climate change is already amounting to several hundred billion of dollars.

Experts agree that this is just a tiny beginning.

But I still think some incredibly high-magnitude consequences are currently overlooked.

Asian populations will be flooded by 2050

Asia currently represents 60% of the global population.

Even more striking: this population is largely concentrated in a smallish area. We have all seen this map:

To top it all, this population is partially concentrated in coastal cities:

This explains why Asia will bear most of cost of climate change by 2050:

If we only focus on rising sea levels for now, this is scary:

Look at this (poor) overlap of the 2 maps:

Notice any pattern?

By 2030, some megacities GDP could already be wiped out:

I don’t think most people realise the magnitude of the catastrophe. Beyond the impact on people’s lives, the financial impact on a global economy that relies on Asia as its main growth engine will be devastating. For everyone.

The world might run out of food before 2050

This is where we grow our crops:

This is where working outside in summer will become deadly:

Let’s overlap?

I’ll let you draw your own conclusions.

Remember that most farmers do not own air-conditioned agricultural machinery.

African & Indian temperatures will become lethal by 2100

Africa’s population is rising at an incredible pace:

It will slow down, like the rest of demographic-transitioned countries:

And the world population will plateau, around 2100:

But by then, Africa and Asia will collectively represent 80%+ of global population:

This population will largely live in megacities of 25-100 million people (which I can hardly imagine the looks of):

Now, this looks awfully concentrated between the tropics.

According to expert predictions, this will most likely destroy any hope of serious economic growth for these populations:

Source: 2015 - Burke, Hsiang & Miguel - Global non-linear effect of temperature on economic production

Last overlap for today?

Yep.

That’s awful.

What troubles me the most is that no one really seems to think of the magnitude of this impact.

It is bound to transform any geopolitical balance we are currently familiar with. Not to explicitly mention never-ending wars.

Just wanted to make sure that at least you guys understood what current predictions agree might happen.

Thanks for reading, and have a cool weekend,

V