Hello Friends,
And happy Monday!
I recently listened to this Tim Ferriss podcast on AGI with Eric Schmidt, Google’s CEO from 2001 to 2011.
They discuss the theses that Eric Schmidt develops in the new book he wrote in collaboration with Henry Kissinger, the 100-year-old giant of US geopolitics for close to a decade during the Cold War.
The book itself only features a 3.43 rating out of 5 on Goodreads, so it does not make my (ruthless) cut, but the podcast was insightful nonetheless.
I’ll share the key insights while strictly focusing on the points that were significantly contrarian and/or impactful enough from a geopolitical standpoint - not to bore you (and myself) with mainstream AI knowledge.
Artificial General Intelligence (AGI)
Despite how impressive ChatGPT can prove itself, we are still far from an Artificial General Intelligence (AGI). This would require the ability for such a model to set its own goals and make active decisions. Current models need to generate a vast universe of options then select from those options. This require hardware orders of magnitude more powerful than the ones existing models currently run on.
The strategic significance of AGI lies in its potential to surpass human capabilities in complex decision-making, strategic planning, and creative problem-solving. It suggests that nations possessing AGI capabilities can gain a competitive advantage in various sectors, influencing economic growth, healthcare, and defense. The ability of AGI to enhance strategic thinking will become a key driver of geopolitical influence and leadership.
However, nations or organizations aspiring to attain AGI capabilities must be prepared for the considerable costs associated with its development.
Quantum computing could expedite AGI development. Therefore the potential synergy between quantum computing and AGI represents a strategic advantage for nations navigating the evolving landscape of artificial intelligence.
Military Deterrence and AGI Disparities
AGI will be a potential game-changer in military deterrence. A nation possessing AGI could gain a substantial advantage in strategic planning, decision-making, and adapting to dynamic scenarios on the battlefield.
The development of AGI introduces concerns about a potential "AGI gap" between technologically advanced nations and others. Schmidt emphasizes the need for international collaboration to establish guidelines and prevent AGI from becoming a tool of dominance, ensuring a more equitable global landscape. Now we all know how world equity usually turns out - not being cynical, just realistic. Probably better for nations to have their own AGI strategy as early as possible since even a few months (weeks? days?) of AGI gap could be hard to bridge.
AGI's role in military applications extends beyond traditional warfare to cyber warfare, autonomous systems, and information warfare. Combined with nuclear deterrence or even less powerful mass-destruction weapons, it is difficult to anticipate how AGI-powered weapon systems could try to front-run each other and how long it might take to reach escalation at a scale too large for us to reverse.
Thanks for reading, and have a technology-light weekend ahead,
V