Macromegas #23 - China: Territorial and Moral High Ground (Part 3)

China’s Missing Cornerstone Towards Global Reach - Territorial and Moral Higher Ground

Hi friends,

Happy Friday!

Third and last part on China’s geopolitics and military.

(re-)Read part 1: China, The Planned Superpower (Part 1).

(re-)Read Part 2: China: Dreaming of a Blue-Water Navy (Part 2).

China’s Missing Cornerstone Towards Global Reach - Territorial Moral High Ground

In the previous two parts, China: The Planned Superpower (Part 1) & China: Dreaming of a Blue-Water Navy (Part 2), we’ve discussed China’s goal of becoming a (military) superpower by 2050.

We’ve also established that China was working on building its military machine with high economic efficiency, and making sure it was getting ample training to reach operating readiness.

Now for the last two missing blocks:

3. Gaining the ability to deploy it

As we’ve seen in the second part of this series, having advanced naval bases across the worlds ocean is an incomparable asset and a true requirement to get into the blue-navy club.

The two former largest colonial countries still enjoy that tremendous advantage despite their largely reduced economic and military power.

France still displays the largest Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) Area in the world:

The UK lost much more in their decolonisation process, but still remains with a sizeable footprint. Worth noting that the Commonwealth is typically excluded from this way of counting.

As we’ve seen in United States: The Inevitable Empire, the US managed quite well during the late 19th and along the 20th century.

Besides, as already seen, the US imperial dominance also allows them military bases in many foreign countries, which does give them the largest overall reach:

Even Russia, with no significant colonial history, has the huge advantage of its massive territory which spans two continents and two/three oceans:

Now compare this with China (disputed area in the two lighter shades of pink):

Or again vs. US and their allies’ EEZs in the pacific region (yellow area more or less the same disputed zones as above):

China has no reach as of now.

Most importantly, in case of conflict, its mostly regional/defensive fleet is fully contained and cornered by the US and their allies:

Similar view with detailed military strength, US only (allies excluded):

If you are in charge of China’s military command, your first goal is to make sure you can deploy your forces outside of that containment zone. This is what China is actively working on, mostly through alliances. Below is the example of the Indian Ocean, along with India’s similar goals in its own region:

And as for military equipment construction, China enjoys the massive advantage of economic size and growth, and significantly lower personnel cost. Maintaining oversee bases across the world costs a fortune. The US have to expend a large portion of their GDP to maintain that advantage. The relative cost to China is much more affordable.

4. Building up the legitimacy to use it

The last key element in case China would need to use its military is alliances, support, and legitimacy.

This agenda is pushed through 3 main aspects in my opinion.

First, economic ties. China has created its own commercial empire, similar to the Marshall Plan for the US a few decades ago. The Belt and Road initiative is only one example of this, as Chinese foreign investments and debt ownership show full global reach.

The second one is diplomatic alliances and actual military cooperation. China is not only working towards practical operational readiness by intervening in foreign conflicts. It is asserting its position as one of the “good guys” and making sure potential allies know they can count on China and know how to cooperate on a theatre of operations. This humanist vision is also clearly stated in China’s Defense Whitepaper, as detailed in the first part of this series.

The third and last one is through media and some level of propaganda. This includes fiction. The US have mastered this for the past decades, with Hollywood dominating the global movie industry without any significant competition.

It works. I could only find those survey ran in France by the main domestic survey agency, but the legend remains quite self-explanatory to non-French speakers.

Shortly after the war, most French people thought the USSR had most contributed to the defeat of Nazi Germany. From many aspects, this is most likely the historical truth: human losses, financial cost, sacrifices during the war - just read about the Siege of Leningrad (now Saint Petersburg). And French people had been experiencing things first-hand enough to know what they were talking about.

Now look a few decades later, and the US clearly save the world in the collective mind, while Russia became the bad guy against which all financial and economic sanctions are not only justified, but even moral duty.

Don’t get me wrong - Stalin’s USSR was most likely one of the worst modern dictatorships ever to be lived in, and modern Russia has its flaws. But the US literally rewrote history.

What is even more striking is that this is true at all levels of education, with both white- and blue-collar workers more or less sharing the exact same opinion profile.

I strongly believe that this is now where China is going to be pouring most of its intellectual and cultural effort. It might appear very blunt and gross right now with the TikTok arm-wrestling and other kinds of obvious censorship.

But remember that propaganda does not have to be subtle, and that generations forget. In 2050, history might be remembered very differently.

Note that besides the question of individual freedom on which I have strong Western convictions, I am not saying that China’s system is intrinsically worse. Propaganda might carry some truth.

Ray Dalio actually brings a fascinatingly and refreshingly objective point of view to this cultural difference in Chapter 6 of his Changing World Order book.

I hope you enjoyed this series.

If so, please feel free to share my newsletter to people who might enjoy understanding the world through a different perspective as well:

Thanks for reading,

V