Macromegas #51 - Russia & Natural Resources: Beyond Ukraine
Beyond Ukraine, Russia is looking to control natural resources in the Arctic and in Africa.
Back in Cold War times, the USSR’s global military sphere of influence was consenquential to say the least:
But once the USSR had fallen in 1991, the only hyperpower left became the US, which leveraged this status with the most exhaustive military coverage the world has every seen:
But in the past 2 decades, Russia has been pushing for a more control over two natural-resources-rich regions.
The Arctic
With climate change quickly making the Artic waters navigable (for suitable ships), Russia is positioning itself to control both newly accessible natural resources, and new trade routes:
Africa
With Africa’s colonial history, it is no surprise that former European superpowers keep strong military presence on the continent to preserve their interests. France far ahead, but the UK, Italy and Spain as well.
American presence is strong as well, but again, this is true everywhere.
China is mostly taking the economic approach, while India is focused on regional control over the Indian Ocean.
But, let’s not forget Russia.
All of Russia’s 6 overseas military bases currently in construction are locate in Africa:
And beyond permanent military bases, Russia is miltiplying military cooperation opportunities (similar to France or the US):
Samilarly to France and the US, Russia is interested in fascinated by Africa’s wealth of natural resources:
Moreover, because Russia does not bother much about public opinion, they are adopting a sensible full nuclear policy (Macromegas #50 - The Future is Nuclear).
First, for themselves: Russia's most recent Federal Target Program projected a 25–30% nuclear share in electricity supply by 2030, 45–50% by 2050 and 70–80% by the end of the century.
But also as a global technological leader, as explained by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA):
Today the Russian Federation is leading in new nuclear construction abroad. [...] The competitive strength of the Russian Federation’s proposals can be attributed to the advanced technologies and latest know how developed by the country’s scientists and designers. All design projects meet modern international requirements and IAEA recommendations.
The last 3 maps are all from this excellent piece by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
I strongly believe that beyond the invasion of Ukraine and its consequences on global food security (Macromegas #49 - Russia, Ukraine, Wheat & Global Food Security), these two Russian regional priorities are fundamental to understand Russia’s vision of a future resources-scarce world.
In such a world, controlling natural resources while enjoying the sanctity of nuclear weapons deterrence will translate into phenomenal leverage on the international scene.