Macromegas #46 - China, Taiwan, the US, Chips, Cyberwarfare & Hypersonic Missiles... Again
China, Taiwan, the US, Chips, Cyberwarfare & Hypersonic Missiles... Again
Hello Friends,
And happy Friday!
In the past, we talked about How the US Made the Most of Their Unique Territorial Potential to become an “Inevitable” Empire.
We then discussed how China had been planning its way into a US-rival superpower, how its main military gap was its lack of a Blue-Water Navy, and how it was working militarily, economically, and politically towards a global reach.
Well, earlier, this week, this ambitious plan has been materially confirmed by the satellite discovery of 2 US aircraft carriers replicas… in the Chinese desert!
Oh, and some destroyers as well:
There is a clear connection between those mock targets, and the recent test of hypersonic missiles by China a few weeks ago.
Even though not strictly new technology - Russia is already supposed to have some deployed - this is a pain in the 11-aircraft-carrier-strong US blue-water navy since those missiles would be near impossible to intercept with enough reliability to protect strategic assets such as $10-15bn aircraft carriers requiring 5-10 years to build.
This new competitive advantages bypasses the capabilities of defense infrastructure such as Reagan’s Strategic Defense Initiative - aka "Star Wars program"
Or Israel’s Iron Dome
Now, why would China be specifically keen on destroying US aircraft carriers?
First, because the US invested A LOT in a reliable defense system
and the idea of making such a multi-decade defense mega-project obsolete is an ideological victory.
But most importantly, because of Taiwan, both for its microchip industry and its strategic geographic location as a gate to the Pacific in the 1st Island Chain:
We already discussed the strategic importance of microchips in this cold-war-like confrontation.
After the way China handled the Hong Kong reunification, no one expects Taiwan to willingly accept to get reunited with mainland China. If it ever happens, some amount of coercion is to be expected.
However, as Peter Thiel explains in this excellent brainstorming with senior US officials, modern warfare is virtually impossible to anticipate.
Still, this outstanding interactive article by Reuters illustrates 6 scenarii for a potential forced reunification between China and Taiwan, from the mildest to the scariest.
This excellent thought experiment also illustrates the extent to which cyber warfare could disrupt military conflict as we conventionally imagine it.
Again, as we already discussed, the issue of any degree of escalation between the US and China seems nearly impossible to imagine in our globally-integrated economy.
Experts seem to think the US would still have the upper hand on most aspects: military, supply chain, economy, and political influence. I would tend to agree.
But the balance is evolving very fast. What’s your take on this complex question?
Thanks for reading, and have a secure weekend,
V